Probabilistic Modeling for Environmental Risks Across Krasnoyarsk Krai's Northern and Arctic Territories

Abstract

A risk-based approach is considered for the analysis of adverse impacts on the natural environment of the northern and Arctic territories of the Krasnoyarsk Krai. Probabilistic graphical modeling based on Bayesian belief networks is used, allowing the formalization of cause-and-effect relationships between natural and technogenic factors, accounting for uncertainty in initial data, and enabling rapid updating of estimates under changing conditions. It is concluded that the proposed approach can be applied in territorial management systems, environmental planning, and in the development of measures aimed at reducing negative impacts on the ecosphere of northern and Arctic territories.