Quantitative Estimation of Anthropogenic Environmental Risk (by the example of Tasks of Marine Spatial Basing)

Abstract

Crucial task of toolkit development (“management instrumentation”) of maritime spatial planning could be solved with the aid of some existing quantitative methods, successfully applied for optimization of design solutions. In this regard there were considered possibilities of risk analysis use in estimation, forecasting and choice of measures on adjustment of environmental hazards in the design of maritime hydrotechnical constructions. There was demonstrated that environmental risk the most practicably evaluate in probabilistic-value terms: sum of ensemble average of damage from implementation of alternative scenario of environmentally hazard events. The use of offered method is demonstrated by the example of preliminary evaluation of impact on environment of offshore harbor Big Port Saint-Petersburg. The most winning side of such approach is a possibility of well-grounded design and managerial decisions, on the basis of interrelation of value of avert environmental risk and necessary for it costs.