A systematic analysis of the past 35-year period of development of the country's agro-industrial complex shows that there has been an intensification of the production of grain and other products of the industry. The contribution of various ecological and economic factors to this process is estimated. It is proved that its material and resource basis is the accumulated, and not yet replenished, soil fertility-a stock of organic matter( humus), macro-and microelements of mineral nutrition of plants, a set of modes and parameters that allow for the production process and form the yield of cultivated crops (marketable products). Reproduction of soil fertility can be achieved only through technologies that include the assessment and adjustment of expenditure and input items of the balance of elements of mineral nutrition of plants in agrocenoses. It is shown that if the current approach is maintained, the limits of the growth of the agricultural sector of the economy will be determined by the annually decreasing potential of the fertility of arable soils, the degradation of which increases every year.